Ecological Security
Handbook on the Geopolitics of Sustainability · Edward Elgar Publishing · Part II, Chapter 3 · with Dan Smith · Open Access

Examines ecological security as a distinct analytical framework from environmental and climate security, tracing the pathways by which biosphere instability, pollution, ecological crime, and eco-amplifying processes translate into human, national, and global insecurity. Co-authored with Dan Smith, Director General of SIPRI. Published in an open-access handbook bringing together interdisciplinary perspectives on sustainability geopolitics.

Five Urgent Questions on Ecological Security
SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security · April 2023 · with Dan Smith

Calls for the science, security, and policy communities to urgently address the security implications of ecological disruption across six interconnected domains. Argues that ecological security demands a fundamentally broader lens than climate security alone.

A Security Threat Assessment of Global Climate Change
Center for Climate & Security / NSMIP · February 2020 · Advisory Board Member

Expert panel assessment finding that near-term warming of 1–2°C poses “High” to “Very High” security threats, and 2–4+°C warming poses “Very High” to “Catastrophic” threats to global and national security. Covered by USA Today and Reuters.

A Collision of Stressors: Antimicrobial Resistance in an Era of Climate and Ecological Disruption
Rockefeller Foundation Bellagio Center Residency · September 2022

Research project examining how climate change, biosphere instability, and antimicrobial resistance intersect and amplify one another, with attention to implications for human, national, and global security.

The Security Threat That Binds Us
Council on Strategic Risks

Argues that ecological disruption constitutes a foundational and shared security threat — one that transcends conventional geopolitical divisions and demands a new basis for international cooperation on risk.

Societal and Security Implications of Ecosystem Service Declines, Part 1: Pollination and Seed Dispersal
Council on Strategic Risks · March 2022

Examines how the decline of pollination and seed dispersal services — driven by habitat loss, pesticide use, and climate disruption — cascades into food system fragility, economic instability, and security risk. Part of a series applying ecosystem service frameworks to national security analysis.

Understanding Polycrisis: Definitions, Applications, and Responses
Global Sustainability (Cambridge University Press) · 2025 · with Sienna Mark, Samantha Holder, Daniel Hoyer, Daniel P. Aldrich

Peer-reviewed paper defining polycrisis and mapping how interconnected ecological, economic, and political crises cascade into systemic instability. One of the defining academic treatments of the polycrisis concept.

Updating Mental Models of Risk
Issues in Science and Technology · Summer 2025 · with Daniel P. Aldrich and Daniel Hoyer

Argues that policymakers, risk managers, and insurers have consistently treated disasters as isolated events, and that the polycrisis demands a fundamental change in how we think about and respond to complex, interconnected risk.

Quantitative Analysis of EMDAT Indicates Changes in Disaster Trends over 124 Years Associated with Polycrisis
SSRN Working Paper · 2024 · with Sienna Mark, Margarida Soares Rodrigues, Samantha Holder, Daniel Hoyer, Daniel P. Aldrich

Quantitative analysis of 124 years of disaster data showing how disaster patterns are shifting in ways consistent with polycrisis dynamics.

Deny, Delay, Downplay: How Governments Hide Climate Change Intelligence
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists · February 2026

Examines how governments suppress, delay, and downplay climate security assessments produced by their own intelligence and scientific agencies.

Ecological Disruptions Are a Risk to National Security
The Conversation · January 2026 · with Bradley J. Cardinale and Emmett Duffy

Explains how overfishing, disease emergence, and environmental crime cause social and political instability, economic strife, and strained international relations — and why these should be treated as core security concerns.

Global Change Research for a More Secure World
Eos (American Geophysical Union) · May 2024 · with Benjamin L. Preston, Hila Levy, Heather Tallis, Jane Lubchenco

Argues for orienting global change science so it informs national security, helping develop interventions that promote social stability and ecological well-being.

Getting Climate Intelligence Right
Just Security · November 2021 · with Erin Sikorsky

“Harrowing” Intelligence Report Still Downplays Threat of Climate Change to National Security
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists · November 2021

Climate Change Should Be Recognized for What It Is: An Issue of National Security
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists · January 2021

The Climate Does Not Need a Spokesperson (Op-Ed)
The New York Times · July 30, 2019

Written upon resigning from the State Department. Describes the White House suppression of scientific testimony and the costs of politicizing intelligence analysis on ecological and climate threats.

National Security Implications of Climate Change
Testimony before the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence · June 2019

Oral testimony as the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research representative on the national security implications of climate change. Written Statement for the Record was blocked by the White House, prompting coverage in the New York Times, Washington Post, CNN, Wall Street Journal, and CBS, and ultimately Dr. Schoonover’s resignation.

Recent Advances Plenary Lecture
Ecological Society of America Annual Meeting · Portland, Oregon · August 2023

Plenary lecture to the nation’s largest professional ecology organization on embedding ecological disruption into modern security doctrine and architecture.

The National Security Risks We’re Not Prepared For: Adapting in an Age of Actorless Threats
The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens · Episode 183 · June 2025

Long-form interview on how the biggest national security threats of the 21st century are no longer opposing nations but “actorless threats” emerging from the breakdown of complex systems we all depend on.

Ecological Futures Group
Founder & CEO · ecologicalfutures.com

Examines how ecological disruption — from biosphere instability and pollution to antimicrobial resistance and ecological crime — drives new forms of social, political, and security instability.